this kind of career trajectory in and out of the private sector is virtually unheard-of in other countries, such as the United Kingdom, but very common in France, where the practice is commonly known as pantouflage. In large cross-national surveys of elite managers at leading firms, up to a fifth of top managers and a third of French CEOs have had prior experience as a civil servant, compared to just three percent of English and German top managers.

the Switchblade drone. It’s a loitering munition that takes a one-way trip. The light version can loiter for 15 to 20 minutes. Heavy version, 30 to 40 minutes with a range of at least 40 km. The operator selects a target, it locks on and it follows. Then it strikes when the operator gives that order. This is extraordinarily effective because you can’t hear it on the ground. The first time the enemy knows it’s there is when it blows up. If we can get enough of those into Ukraine, they could be a true game-changer.

This week, Xi Jinping has declared his support for Argentina’s claim to ‘the full exercise of sovereignty’ over the Falklands islands.

It would happily argue that the Falklands equal Taiwan and should be returned to their rightful owners, even though there probably is not one single Falklander who wants to be ruled by Argentina.

Dom

When Pearl Harbor happened, Washington was in shock. Unprovoked attack!

What had really happened?

America had tightened economic warfare against Japan including shutting down oil. Then it suddenly confiscated Japanese assets held in America. Japan won’t do anything, said the high status Washington insiders, because rationally they know attacking America will be fatal.

But in Japan they reasoned differently: America has clearly decided to destroy our regime so we should attack and try to change the balance of forces.

America has many virtues but its ruling class does not have a long culture of imperial success and it has not developed a ruling class that generates leaders good at judgements about other regimes. Britain had people like Lord Cromer ruling the Egyptians — a very smart, cold, calculating cynical aristocrat with empire in his blood, a sort much better suited to imperial politics than the output of American graduate schools who dominate Washington and repeatedly, naively misjudge other countries.

John Adams exhorted America:
She goes not abroad in search of monsters to destroy.

It would be better for America and for the world if it remembered this, reflected on its repeated imperial failures, focused more on being ‘a shining city on a hill’ and reinforcing all the wonderful things about America, and stayed out of the monster-destroying business unless directly attacked. With patience and time, as Kutozov said in 1812, the Putin problem will resolve itself.

Our politicians and media are more interested in starting/escalating wars in Europe and Taiwan than they are in dealing with the clear and huge bio-risks.

I liked the byline of this Bloomberg graph a lot...

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Investing during wars – Ray Dalio

History shows us, and logic makes clear why, the neutral countries and their markets do best during wars until the “winner” is known.

From the same article, these countries therefore seem relatively good, neutral bets:

the countries that are joining the Western anti-Putin alliance are – for now – East Asian. Singapore, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan together speak for 9 per cent of the world economy – about half the size of Europe, so quite a reinforcement.

Having Asian democracies rally to Europe’s defence isn’t something that politicians here demanded or even expected. But a new alliance has taken shape nonetheless – one that sees things not as West and East but about the free world and its enemies.

When the Ukraine conflict ends, a great many things will have gone forever. The old idea of “the West” may be one of them.